Treasury Yields Tick Up

Published March 6, 2026

Treasury yields varied throughout the week as investors reacted to new economic data for the service industry and awaited February’s monthly jobs report. Yields edged higher at the end of the week as the latest employment data showed signs of a weakening labor market.

On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its purchasing manager’s index (PMI) for February, indicating growth in the service industry. The PMI measures the change in economic activity in the services sector and is used as an indicator of U.S. economic activity. The PMI for February was 56.1%, up from 53.8% in January and above analysts’ forecast of 52.3%.

“The services sector is heating up, with the Business Activity, New Orders, and New Export Orders indexes at their highest levels since 2024, and the Backlog of Orders Index with its best reading since July 2022 (58.3%),” said chair of the ISM survey, Steve Miller. “Although there were several comments on tariff uncertainty regarding the U.S. Supreme Court decision, there was no alarm regarding supply chain performance, suggesting that services companies have developed capabilities to routinely address shifts in tariff policies.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of March 2 at 3.95% and traded as high as 4.15% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.62% and traded as high as 4.77% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment remained unchanged at 213,000 for the week ending February 28, below economists’ expectations of 215,000. Continuing claims increased by 46,000 to 1.87 million. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly jobs report for February which indicated the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% in February from 4.3% in January. The report also noted a decrease of 92,000 jobs in February, compared to economists’ forecasts of an increase of 50,000.

“Recent labor market data had been pointing to resilience, but today’s sharply weaker reading raises the risk that a different picture could be in play,” said the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, Seema Shah. “Markets are being tugged in opposing directions, and this jobs report adds yet another layer of uncertainty to an already noisy backdrop.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of March 2 at 4.13% while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.77%.